The lead story
A 4-point lead in a poll of 1,000 can sit inside its margin.
Type in what a poll published. Approval Rating does the sampling-error arithmetic and tells you, in plain words, what the numbers can show and what they cannot. No sign-up, nothing to install.
Example poll (made-up numbers)
1,000 people · 95% confidence
- Approve 46%±3.1 · 42.9-49.1
- Disapprove 50%±3.1 · 46.9-53.1
- Not sure 4%±1.2 · 2.8-5.2
Inside the margin
Disapprove is 4.0 points ahead of Approve, inside the lead's margin of ±6.1.This poll does not show who is ahead.
- Margin at 50%
- ±3.1
- Margin of the lead
- ±6.1
- Sample
- 1,000
Note: ranges are 95% intervals for sampling error only. They do not cover question wording, who could not be reached, or how the poll was weighted beyond the design effect you entered. What the margin covers.