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Approval Rating.us

Read the poll. Mind the margin.

Sample Planner

How many people do you need to ask?

For a class survey, a club poll or a newsroom questionnaire: pick the margin you can live with and see the sample it takes. Or work backwards from a margin a report printed.

Start over

These are completed answers, not invitations: if one person in ten replies, you have to ask ten times as many.

Example plan

95% confidence · expected 50.0%

1,068 people

For ±3.0 points you need 1,068 completed answers.Halving the margin takes about four times the people.

Margin at each sample size
People askedMarginWidth
100±9.8
250±6.2
400±4.9
600±4.0
1,000±3.1
1,500±2.5
2,500±2.0

Subgroups

A group that is part of the sample has its own, wider margin.

Share of the sampleAboutMargin
50%534 people±4.2
25%267 people±6.0
10%107 people±9.5
Backwards

A reported ±4.0 at 95% matches about 600 people (at a 50% share).If the report says it asked more people than that, its margin most likely includes the widening that weighting causes (the design effect).

Note: simple random sampling arithmetic, times the design effect you entered. Real surveys also lose precision to non-response and weighting. Why the population hardly matters.